Majority in House up for Grabs in 2022

But Republicans and Democrats have this lingering elation or dread -- depending on which side of the aisle you are on -- the GOP is already close to winning back the House even before one vote is cast in the 2022 midterms. Republicans need five seats to win back the majority. There already have been key Democratic retirements in Wisconsin, where Rep. Ron Kind called it quits, and in Illinois, where Rep. Cheri Bustos -- who chaired the DCCC last cycle -- retired. Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania is running for Senate, putting another swing seat in play.

The GOP will pick up seats in Texas and Florida, where Republicans are ascendant. Republicans also control the redistricting process in far more states than Democrats, giving them a huge edge. California, the largest of House delegations, will lose a seat for the first time ever. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio will also lose one seat each.

Democrats will try to offset GOP gains with pickups in states they control, even if that state is losing a seat overall. For instance, New York Democrats will try to draw their new map in a way that allows them to net a one seat gain, despite the delegation continuing to shrink. Democrats in Maryland -- which is keeping the same size House delegation -- are looking at ways they can redraw districts to help Democrats gain a seat. Democrats already have a 7-1 advantage there. So redistricting may not turn out to be the huge bonanza that Republicans had once predicted, but it should help them overall.