Like the rest of the country, Washington DC is hot. The Congressional calendar is short as the August break and fiscal year loom in the not-too-distant future. Here is what Congress faces in the next few weeks.
The Senate is the key to everything for the next several weeks. Senators believe this all the time, but it’s especially true now.
The Senate comes in on Monday and has to vote to end debate on the CHIPS-Plus bill. That package will probably move to final passage on Tuesday or Wednesday, depending how cooperative opponents to the $280 billion package are feeling.
The Senate Democratic leadership has also indicated it may set a vote on the Respect for Marriage Act, which codifies the legality of same-sex marriages and repeals the Defense of Marriage Act. However, even if there are 10 Republicans to break an expected GOP filibuster, it will still take several days on the Senate floor to complete action. So this legislation may get caught up in the pre-recess time crunch.
The Senate also needs to vote on Sweden and Finland’s request to join NATO. This shouldn’t take too long, since the overwhelming majority of senators will be in favor. We expect somewhere in the range of 95 senators will vote yes, maybe more.
President Joe Biden wants the Senate to pass a reconciliation package that extends Obamacare subsidies for two years and allows Medicare to negotiate on drug prices. The legislation is still being vetted by the Senate parliamentarian, and there’s not even draft text available yet. Once it’s out and ready for floor action, it will take at least four or five days to get through the Senate. We expect this to be the last thing the Senate does before leaving town for the recess.
So we’re talking about at least two weeks’ worth of legislative action in the Senate – but perhaps even longer. When it comes to Congress, take the over.
And now for the House
The House has to wait for the Senate on both CHIPS-Plus and reconciliation. But nothing is easy and clean in the House. Both the CHIPS bill and reconciliation will be a tough slog for Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s razor-thin four-seat majority. Which may get even thinner in a couple weeks.
If Republicans win the special election in Minnesota’s 1st District on Aug. 9 – as expected – the voting margin will dip to three seats. This is an extra incentive to get all of the Democratic priorities through in the next two weeks.
So let’s say the Senate finishes work on reconciliation by Aug. 5. Pelosi would want to bring the House back to take up the measure before any new GOP member can be sworn in, if possible.
The House is considering trying to pass a series of police funding bills and an assault weapons ban next week. This won’t be easy. The chamber comes in on Tuesday and leaves Friday.
All this with an eye towards the November elections which most experts believe will shift the balance in Congress, especially the House, towards a Republican majority.